Layer shows the historical and projected change in extreme low nighttime temperatures, in °F. The “extreme low” temperature is defined as the 5th percentile of daily minimum temperatures occurring in each year. The figure compares watershed averages for historical conditions (1970 - 1999) and the projected change from the current generation of climate models. Two time periods are considered: the 2050s (2040 - 2069) and the 2080s (2070 - 2099), based on two greenhouse gas scenarios: one low (RCP 4.5) and one high (RCP 8.5). Dark purple shading on the historical map indicates areas with the lowest extreme low nighttime temperatures. Projected increases in extreme low nighttime temperatures are depicted by the yellow to red shading. Figure created by Robert Norheim, Climate Impacts Group, based on the CMIP5 projections used in the IPCC 20132 report. Data source: Mote et al. 2015.